The Great Flood of 2019: A Complete Picture of a Slow-Motion Disaster
This year’s flooding across the Midwest and the South affected nearly 14 million people, yet the full scale of the slowly unfolding disaster has been difficult to fathom. To visualize just how extensive it was, The New York Times created this composite map showing all the areas that were inundated at some point from January through June.
The blue on the map, generated from satellite data used to detect flooding, shows the estimated extent and intensity of flooding. The usual extents of rivers are shown in white. Farmland, much of which was so drenched that farmers had to delay planting, is shown in green.
Minneapolis
Minneapolis
Eau Claire
Eau Claire
Mankato
Mankato
Rochester
Rochester
La Crosse
La Crosse
Sioux Falls
Sioux Falls
SOUTH DAKOTA
SOUTH DAKOTA
*
IOWA
Sioux City
Sioux City
Dubuque
Dubuque
Waterloo
Waterloo
Rockford
Rockford
Missouri
River
Missouri
River
IOWA
Norfolk
Ames
Cedar Rapids
Cedar Rapids
Chicago
Chicago
NEBRASKA
NEBRASKA
Des Moines
Des Moines
Columbus
Columbus
Fremont
Fremont
Ottawa
Ottawa
Omaha
Omaha
Kankakee
Kankakee
IOWA
Creston
Grand Island
Grand Island
York
Lincoln
Lincoln
Burlington
Burlington
Shenandoah
6 MILES
6 MILES
Peoria
Peoria
Nebraska City
*
Bloomington
Bloomington
Craig
Champaign
Champaign
MISSOURI
Beardstown
Indianapolis
Indianapolis
Quincy
Decatur
Quincy
Decatur
Springfield
Springfield
ILLINOIS
Chillicothe
Chillicothe
KANSAS
St. Joseph
St. Joseph
Jacksonville
Atchison
MISSOURI
Atchison
ILLINOIS
Brunswick
Louisiana
Brunswick
Louisiana
KANSAS
Norborne
Norborne
Manhattan
5 MILES
5 MILES
Glasgow
9 MILES
9 MILES
Kansas City
Kansas City
MISSOURI
Topeka
Topeka
*
Lawrence
Lawrence
Columbia
Columbia
Missouri River
Missouri River
Sedalia
St. Louis
St. Louis
Jefferson City
Jefferson City
Louisville
Louisville
Mt. Vernon
Grayville
Mississippi
River
Evansville
Evansville
Mt. Vernon
Mt. Vernon
Chester
Chester
MISSOURI
Owensboro
Owensboro
ILLINOIS
Wichita
Wichita
Mississippi
River
ILLINOIS
Livermore
Livermore
Cape
Girardeau
Cape Girardeau
KENTUCKY
Springfield
Springfield
Joplin
Joplin
*
Clarksville
Union City
Mississippi
River
Mississippi
River
Pocahontas
Nashville
Pocahontas
Nashville
Tulsa
Tulsa
ARKANSAS
Dyersburg
Dyersburg
TENNESSEE
Jonesboro
Jonesboro
12 MILES
12 MILES
Muskogee
Muskogee
Jackson
Jackson
Oklahoma City
Oklahoma City
Newport
Payneway
*
TENNESSEE
Savannah
Savannah
Russellville
Memphis
Memphis
OKLAHOMA
OKLAHOMA
Conway
Huntsville
Marianna
Little Rock
Little Rock
Mississippi
River
Mississippi
River
Hot Springs
Hot Springs
ARKANSAS
Tupelo
Tupelo
Mellwood
Pine Bluff
Pine Bluff
Arkansas
River
MISSISSIPPI
Oxberry
Oxberry
ARKANSAS
Birmingham
MISSISSIPPI
Greenville
Texarkana
Greenville
Texarkana
Tuscaloosa
Anguilla
ALABAMA
ALABAMA
Valley Park
Valley Park
Montgomery
Longview
Monroe
Longview
Monroe
20 MILES
20 MILES
Shreveport
Shreveport
LOUISIANA
Jackson
Tyler
LOUISIANA
Tyler
Jackson
*
Winnsboro
TEXAS
TEXAS
MISSISSIPPI
Natchez
Natchez
Sibley
Hattiesburg
Hattiesburg
MISSISSIPPI
Lufkin
Lufkin
Alexandria
Alexandria
LOUISIANA
Mobile
Morganza
Mississippi
River
Mississippi
River
Baton Rouge
LOUISIANA
Baton Rouge
Lake Charles
Lake Charles
Lafayette
Lafayette
Beaumont
*
New Orleans
New Orleans
Houston
Houston
Public interest in natural disasters tends to focus on big, discrete weather events like hurricanes. But flooding that unfolds over months across a broad area has a harder time breaking through. It is only when seen as a single, connected event that the stunning scale of the 2019 flood season becomes clear.
To measure the scope of the spring floods, The New York Times analyzed satellite data from the Joint Polar Satellite System using software, developed by government and academic researchers for flood detection, that is frequently used in disaster response.
The data covers the period from Jan. 15 to June 30 and shows an interconnected catastrophe along the Missouri, Mississippi and Arkansas Rivers, a system that drains more than 40 percent of the landmass of the continental United States.
NORTH
DAKOTA
Missouri
River
MINNESOTA
WISCONSIN
SOUTH
DAKOTA
IOWA
NEBRASKA
ILLINOIS
Arkansas
River
KANSAS
MISSOURI
TENNESSEE
ARKANSAS
OKLAHOMA
Mississippi
River
LOUISIANA
TEXAS
MISSISSIPPI
N.D.
Missouri
River
MINN.
WISC.
S.D.
IA.
NEB.
ILL.
Arkansas
River
KS.
MO.
TENN.
ARK.
OKLA.
Mississippi
River
LA.
TEX.
MISS.
The flooding started in earnest in March as heavy rains fell on frozen ground already bearing a deep load of winter snow. As the water spread across parts of South Dakota, Nebraska and Iowa, traditional defenses that communities had in place to protect against rising waters were quickly overwhelmed.
As the high water from the many tributaries of the Mississippi came together, the river became a record-breaking monster.
NORTH
DAKOTA
Missouri
River
MINNESOTA
WISCONSIN
SOUTH
DAKOTA
IOWA
NEBRASKA
ILLINOIS
Arkansas
River
KANSAS
MISSOURI
TENNESSEE
ARKANSAS
OKLAHOMA
Mississippi
River
LOUISIANA
TEXAS
MISSISSIPPI
N.D.
Missouri
River
MINN.
WISC.
S.D.
IA.
NEB.
ILL.
Arkansas
River
KS.
MO.
TENN.
ARK.
OKLA.
Mississippi
River
LA.
TEX.
MISS.
By the end of June, the flooding was so intense and widespread that at least 11 states had sought federal disaster funds for more than 400 counties. Forty-nine United States Geological Survey gauges measured more water this year than at any time in at least 20 years.
Bryan Tuma, assistant director of Nebraska’s Emergency Management Agency, said, simply, “I would describe it as biblical.”
The causes of flooding are complicated, but climate change is increasingly an exacerbating factor. Warmer air can hold more moisture, and that moisture can fall back out of the sky, whether as rain or snow, in greater amounts.
The year through May 2019 was the wettest 12-month period on record in the United States, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Nearly 38 inches of water fell, almost eight inches above average.
A Mississippi River mayors council estimated that the cost of infrastructure damage and emergency response was at least $2 billion. That number is likely to rise as the water recedes and officials can check the extent of the damage. The full cost to repair homes and businesses has yet to be calculated.
David Alexander, a professor of risk and disaster reduction at University College London, said that typical recovery times from major disasters are “in the range of 10 to 25 years.”
Ultimately, the volume of water is only one source of damage: What’s in that water also plays a role.
The waters of the Mississippi, carrying chemical fertilizers from heartland farms, lawns and other sources, have contributed to a “dead zone” in the Gulf of Mexico, an area with too little oxygen to support fish and other marine life.
NOAA predicts that this year's dead zone will be 8,717 square miles — about the size of New Hampshire.
Back in March, Edward Clark, director of NOAA’s National Water Center, said that what lay ahead was a “potentially unprecedented” flood season, even worse than the Great Flood of 1993.
In a recent interview, Mr. Clark said, with no satisfaction, “Yes, we got it right.”
Sixty-three percent of comparable United States Geological Survey gauges in the region recorded higher peaks this year than in the same period of 1993.
“This is a year that will remain in our cultural memory, in our history,” he said.
Methodology
To produce a single image of this year's flooding, The Times analyzed six months of satellite imagery from VIIRS sensors provided by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration covering January to June 2019. The extent of flooding in each image was estimated by using a model produced by the University of Wisconsin and described in an academic paper, and checked against accounts of local officials in affected areas.
The Times analyzed multiple images to create daily and then weekly composites. These were then aggregated into a single image that shows the extent of flooding over the six-month period. Darker blue areas show more intense flooding.
The model’s prediction takes into account cloud cover and terrain shadows, but has some limitations when estimating flooding in swamps, marshland and coastal areas.