Fact Check Team: Experts predict 'red wave' as Biden administration struggles with support

WASHINGTON (TND) — As polls begin to close and ballots are being counted, Americans will soon know which party will control Congress. Experts have said time and time again that the country should expect to see a red wave.

The National Desk’s Fact Check Team looked at historical data and found the party that has the presidency typically loses seats during the midterm elections.

Starting with the basics of the House, right now, there are 212 Republicans in the House and 220 Democrats. According to Politico, the modern midterm average is a loss of 27 House seats.

There’s no agreed-upon definition of what a wave is but with this average, if Democrats lose more than 40 seats, it could be considered a red wave.

Three of the last four presidents experienced somewhat of a “wave.” Bill Clinton lost 54 seats, Barack Obama lost 63 seats and Donald Trump lost 40 seats.

There’s a wide range of predictions ahead of the final ballot counts. Political science professor John Sides of Vanderbilt University predicts a red wave by Politico’s standards. He said Democrats will lose around 40 to 45 seats in the House.

The Cook Political Report notes that Republicans are most likely to gain 15 to 25 seats and FiveThirtyEight predicts Republicans have an 80% chance of winning between 1 and 33 house seats.

The big picture is that Republicans will likely gain seats and Democrats will lose seats in the House — it’s just a waiting game to see how many.

What will happen in the Senate is harder to predict at this point.

Politico forecasts that if the two parties split six toss-up seats evenly, Republicans will win a 51-49 majority and FiveThirtyEight predicts that Republicans have an 80% chance of holding between 48 and 54 seats.

Biden’s messaging ahead of Tuesday became increasingly dire, insisting that democracy itself is at stake and that voting in Republicans “is a path to chaos in America.”

There are candidates running for every level of office in America, for governor, Congress, Attorney General, Secretary of State, who won’t commit, that will not commit to accepting the results of the election that they’re running in," said Biden. "It’s unprecedented.”

He’s also made strong claims about the success his administration has had when it comes to the economy but many disagree.

Today, the most common price of gas in America is $3.39 — down from over $5 when I took office,” the president said.

The president has faced a lot of backlash over this comment. According to the Energy Information Administration, gas prices were actually at around $2.48 when Biden took office, not $5.

The “most common price” he refers to is a measurement from GasBuddy and it tends to be lower than the average price, so he wasn’t far off on the day he made the comment.

The president also said that for the first time in 10 years, seniors are getting an increase in their social security checks.

The Fact Check Team found that starting in January of 2023, approximately 70 million Americans will see an 8.7% increase in their social security benefits and supplemental security income payments.

On average, those benefits will increase by more than $140 a month but the key part that’s missing is that federal benefit rates increase when the cost of living rises and there has been an increase every year since 2017.

There was also an increase every year from 2012 to 2015 before the payment level went flat in 2016.

He also made a similar statement at a Pennsylvania fundraiser that seniors are getting the biggest social security increase they’ve ever gotten but again, there’s some needed context here.

Benefits are adjusted every year to keep up with inflation and since inflation has soared, benefits will too — that’s where that 8.7% comes into play. In fact, by law, social security payments have to be raised by the same percentage that a certain measure of inflation has increased. That’s called a cost of living adjustment.

It’s also important to note that the White House tweeted a similar statement but then deleted it after Twitter labeled it as lacking context.