There Are Economic Warning Signs for Trump in the Midwest
Jobs during Trump’s tenure
Percentage change in total employment,
Dec. 2016 to Oct. 2019
Midwestern
swing states
+6.8%
+2.2%
+1.0%
+1.4%
+5.5%
+1.6%
+7.7%
+0.8%
+1.9%
+1.8%
+2.6%
+1.7%
+9.1%
+1.6%
+9.6%
+6.4%
+5.6%
+2.9%
+7.9%
+6.6%
+1.2%
–0.4%
+6.9%
Jobs during Trump’s tenure
Percentage change in total employment,
Dec. 2016 to Oct. 2019
+6.8%
+2.1%
Midwestern
swing states
+3.3%
+1.0%
Minn.
+1.4%
+2.2%
+5.5%
+2.8%
+7.7%
Wis.
+1.6%
+3.0%
+3.8%
+3.3%
Mich.
+0.8%
+1.9%
+3.1%
+1.8%
Pa.
+1.7%
+2.8%
+2.6%
2.4%
Ohio
+9.1%
+2.2%
+1.6%
+3.2%
+9.6%
+2.3%
+2.5%
+2.8%
+5.6%
+6.4%
+2.3%
+2.4%
+2.4%
+2.6
+4.8%
+4.3%
+2.9%
+7.9%
+3.5%
+5.2%
+4.1%
+4.9%
+4.3%
+2.1%
+6.6%
+1.2%
–0.4%
+6.9%
+2.5%
Jobs during Trump’s tenure
Percentage change in total employment,
Dec. 2016 to Oct. 2019
+6.8%
+2.1%
+3.3%
+1.0%
Midwestern
swing states
+1.4%
Minn.
+5.5%
+2.8%
+2.2%
+7.7%
Wis.
+3.0%
+3.3%
+3.8%
+1.6%
+0.8%
Mich.
+1.9%
+3.1%
+1.8%
Pa.
+2.6%
+1.7%
+2.8%
2.4%
Ohio
+9.1%
+1.6%
+2.2%
+3.2%
+9.6%
+2.3%
+2.5%
+2.8%
+5.6%
+6.4%
+2.3%
+2.4%
+2.4%
+2.6
+4.8%
+4.3%
+2.9%
+7.9%
+3.5%
+5.2%
+4.1%
+4.3%
+4.9%
+2.1%
+6.6%
+1.2%
–0.4%
+6.9%
+2.5%
The American economy has found its footing after a summer recession scare. But much of the Midwest is still stumbling.
President Trump campaigned in 2016 on a pledge to restore jobs — manufacturing jobs, specifically — to long-struggling Midwestern communities, and he has made the economy a centerpiece of his re-election campaign.
But job growth has slowed sharply this year in Michigan, Pennsylvania and other states that were critical to Mr. Trump’s victory in 2016, as well as in states like Minnesota that he narrowly lost. Hiring in the region has remained sluggish even as it has picked up this fall in much of the rest of the country. Other economic measures show similar weakness.
Job growth has been slow in key states.
Jobs during Trump’s tenure
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7
+8
+9
+10%
Utah
Nev.
Ariz.
Idaho
Fla.
Wash.
Tex.
Colo.
Calif.
Ore.
S.C.
Ga.
N.C.
Ala.
Tenn.
N.M.
S.D.
Ark.
Mont.
N.Y.
Del.
R.I.
Mass.
Okla.
N.J.
N.H.
W.Va.
Pa.
Ky.
Ill.
Hawaii
Kan.
Mo.
Neb.
Va.
Ind.
The Midwestern
swing states are
in the low end.
Md.
Minn.
Me.
Miss.
Wyo.
Mich.
Iowa
Ohio
Wis.
Vt.
La.
N.D.
Conn.
Alaska
–1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7
+8
+9
+10%
Jobs during Trump’s tenure
–1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7
+8
+9
+10%
Utah
Nev.
Ariz.
Idaho
Fla.
Wash.
Tex.
Colo.
Calif.
Ore.
S.C.
Ga.
N.C.
Ala.
Tenn.
N.M.
S.D.
Ark.
Mont.
N.Y.
Del.
R.I.
Mass.
Okla.
N.J.
N.H.
W.Va.
Pa.
Ky.
Ill.
Hawaii
Kan.
Mo.
Neb.
The Midwestern
swing states are
in the low end.
Va.
Ind.
Md.
Minn.
Me.
Miss.
Wyo.
Mich.
Iowa
Ohio
Wis.
Vt.
La.
N.D.
Conn.
Alaska
–1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7
+8
+9
+10%
+
10
%
+
9
Jobs during
Trump’s tenure
+
8
+
7
+
6
+
5
The Midwestern
swing states are
in the low end.
+
4
+
3
+
2
+
1
0
N.D.
Ohio
Iowa
Conn.
La.
Vt.
Wis.
Mich.
Wyo.
Miss.
Me.
Md.
Ind.
Neb.
Mo.
Minn.
Va.
Kan.
Hawaii
Ill.
Ky.
Pa.
W.Va.
N.H.
N.J.
Okla.
Mass.
R.I.
Del.
N.Y.
Ark.
Tenn.
Ala.
N.C.
Ore.
Mont.
S.D.
N.M.
Ga.
S.C.
Calif.
Colo.
Tex.
Fla.
Idaho
Wash.
Ariz.
Nev.
Utah
Alaska
–
1
The states are struggling in part because they depend heavily on manufacturing and agriculture, two sectors that have been hit especially hard by Mr. Trump’s trade war. Tariffs have driven up prices for imported parts and materials, and pushed down demand for American goods abroad.
“Apart from agriculture and manufacturing, everything’s going OK,” said Ernie Goss, an economist at Creighton University in Omaha who publishes an economic index that tracks nine states from Minnesota to Arkansas. “Well, in this part of the country that’s not comforting. Those are the two industries we depend on.”
Manufacturing job growth has been declining nationwide . . .
+2.5
%
Manufacturing jobs
+2.0
+1.5
+1.0
+0.5
Trump’s tenure
as president
0
–0.5
’14
’15
’16
’17
’18
’19
+2.5
%
Manufacturing jobs
+2.0
+1.5
+1.0
+0.5
Trump’s tenure as president
0
–0.5
’14
’15
’16
’17
’18
’19
An unexpected surge in manufacturing jobs early in Mr. Trump’s term was never as pronounced in the Midwest as elsewhere in the country. Now, those states are struggling as the boom has faded. State-level data through October shows a steep drop in factory employment in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and other states. Other data paints a somewhat rosier picture, but there is no question that growth has slowed.
“We do believe that manufacturing is in a recession,” said Sarah Crane, an economist at Moody’s Analytics. “That is almost always going to have a disproportionately large impact on the Midwest.”
. . . and is particularly weak in Midwestern swing states.
Manufacturing jobs during Trump’s tenure
–5
0
+5
+10
+15
+20
+25
+30
+35%
Nev.
Wyo.
Ariz.
N.D.
S.D.
Utah
Idaho
Tex.
S.C.
Iowa
Ore.
Fla.
Ark.
Del.
N.M.
Me.
Colo.
Va.
Mont.
Ga.
Wash.
Ala.
Mo.
Neb.
Kan.
Ill.
La.
Conn.
N.J.
Miss.
Calif.
Okla.
The Midwestern swing states are a bit more clustered towards the low end.
W.Va.
Tenn.
Md.
Ky.
Ohio
Minn.
Ind.
N.H.
N.C.
Vt.
Wis.
Pa.
Mass.
Mich.
N.Y.
R.I.
Hawaii
Alaska
–5
0
+5
+10
+15
+20
+25
+30
+35%
Manufacturing jobs during Trump’s tenure
–5
0
+5
+10
+15
+20
+25
+30
+35%
Nev.
Wyo.
Ariz.
N.D.
S.D.
Utah
Idaho
Tex.
S.C.
Iowa
Ore.
Fla.
Ark.
Del.
N.M.
Me.
Colo.
Va.
Mont.
Ga.
Wash.
Ala.
Mo.
Neb.
Kan.
Ill.
La.
Conn.
N.J.
Miss.
Calif.
Okla.
W.Va.
The Midwestern swing states are a bit more clustered towards the low end.
Tenn.
Md.
Ky.
Ohio
Minn.
Ind.
N.H.
N.C.
Vt.
Wis.
Pa.
Mass.
Mich.
N.Y.
R.I.
Hawaii
Alaska
–5
0
+5
+10
+15
+20
+25
+30
+35%
+35
%
+30
Manufacturing jobs
during Trump’s tenure
+25
Tesla opened a large plant in low-manufacturing Nevada in 2016.
+20
+15
The Midwestern swing states are a bit more clustered towards the low end.
+10
+ 5
0
Pa.
Wis.
N.C.
N.H.
Minn.
Ohio
Ky.
N.J.
Vt.
Ind.
Md.
Tenn.
W.Va.
Okla.
Calif.
Miss.
Conn.
La.
Ill.
Mo.
Ala.
Wash.
Ga.
Mont.
Colo.
Kan.
Neb.
Va.
Me.
N.M.
Del.
Ark.
Fla.
Ore.
Iowa
S.C.
Tex.
Idaho
Utah
S.D.
N.D.
Wyo.
Ariz.
Nev.
Mass.
Mich.
N.Y.
R.I.
– 5
Hawaii
Alaska
Still, compared with the crisis of the Great Recession — or even the years of more gradual industrial decline that preceded it — the economy in the Midwest remains on relatively solid footing. The unemployment rate is hovering around 4 percent in much of the region and is even lower in some states. Almost every Midwestern state has added jobs in the past year with the exception of Michigan, where the strike at General Motors temporarily knocked some 17,000 workers off payrolls in October. (November data, which should reflect the end of the strike, will be released later this month.)
It isn’t clear how voters will respond to what has been, so far, a mild economic slowdown. Early polls show Mr. Trump leading in the Midwest against several of his prospective Democratic opponents, and his approval ratings have remained largely steady. Patrick Anderson, an economist in East Lansing, Mich., who has studied how the economy affects elections, said he doubted that voters would view the slowdown as a crisis.
“Many of these voters are resistant to the notion that this is a bad time because they have lived through a very bad time,” Mr. Anderson said.
Manufacturing has particularly struggled in counties critical to Mr. Trump’s victory.
Manufacturing jobs in the last year
–48%
–17%
0
+3%
+12%
+39%
Outlined counties are those that flipped to voting for Trump from voting for Obama. Most of them have lost manufacturing jobs in the last year.
MINN.
MICH.
WIS.
Macomb
Co., Mich.
PA.
Racine
Co., Wis.
OHIO
Erie Co.,
Ohio
Manufacturing jobs in the last year
–48%
–17%
0
+3%
+12%
+39%
Outlined counties are those that flipped to voting for Trump from voting for Obama. Most of them have lost manufacturing jobs in the last year.
MINNESOTA
WISCONSIN
Macomb
Co., Mich.
MICHIGAN
Erie Co.,
Ohio
Racine
Co., Wis.
PENNSYLVANIA
OHIO
Manufacturing jobs in the last year
–48%
–17%
0
+3%
+12%
+39%
MINNESOTA
Outlined counties are those that flipped to voting for Trump from voting for Obama. Most of them have lost manufacturing jobs in the last year.
WISCONSIN
Macomb
Co., Mich.
MICHIGAN
Erie Co.,
Ohio
Racine
Co., Wis.
PENNSYLVANIA
OHIO
There is some evidence, however, that the economy is suffering more in places that are particularly important for Mr. Trump’s re-election chances. Job growth has been markedly weaker in Midwestern counties that went from voting for Barack Obama in 2012 to voting for Mr. Trump in 2016 than in the rest of the Midwest or the country as a whole. Manufacturing employment in those counties fell outright in the year ending in June, the most recent data available.
Macomb County, Mich., for example, voted twice for Mr. Obama, but favored Mr. Trump by 48,000 votes — more than his margin in the state as a whole. The county, a suburb of Detroit, fared well economically during the first year and a half of Mr. Trump’s term, adding 7,400 jobs, including 5,600 in manufacturing — making it one of the fastest-growing counties in the country in terms of factory employment.
Since then, however, Macomb’s fortunes have reversed. The county lost nearly 1,400 manufacturing jobs in the 12 months that ended in June and overall job growth had slowed to a crawl. Other counties that swung to Mr. Trump, like Racine County, Wis., and Erie County, Ohio, have seen similar reversals.
The slowdown in those counties may be spreading beyond manufacturing.
Change in jobs in the last year in:
Swing counties in the
Midwest swing states
Other counties in the
Midwest swing states
All other
states
Transportation
and warehousing
Natural resources
and mining
Manufacturing
Construction
Retail
Total
+
10
%
+
8
+
6
+
4
+
2
0
–
2
–
4
–
6
Change in jobs
in the last year in:
Swing counties
Other counties
All other
states
in the Midwest
swing states
in the Midwest
swing states
Transportation
and
warehousing
Natural
resources
and mining
Construction
Manufacturing
Retail
Total
+
5
%
+
4
+
3
+
2
+
1
0
–
1
–
2
–
3
Hiring in the Obama-Trump counties has also been weaker in the transportation and warehousing industry — a possible sign that the effects of the trade war have begun to filter through to the rest of the economy.
“It’s spreading beyond manufacturing to industries that move, ship and store goods,” Ms. Crane said.
The United States and China on Friday announced they had reached an agreement to reduce tariffs in what Mr. Trump described as a “phase one deal” between the countries. Few details were available, and past thaws in trade hostilities have proved short-lived. But even if the deal holds, it will take time for the economic damage done by the tariffs to reverse. Michael Hicks, an economist at Ball State University in Indiana, said that job losses were likely to worsen in the coming months and that it was unlikely that the Midwest could fully recover before the height of the election season next fall.
“By September or October of next year, if you’re campaigning in Wisconsin, Michigan, Ohio, western Pennsylvania or Indiana, you can point clearly to the trade war as a cause of growing economic malaise in those states,” Mr. Hicks said.