Could Kanye West's 2020 bid hurt Joe Biden and give a 'Hail Mary' boost to Donald Trump?
Rhonda Mangum doesn't think rapper Kanye West is a serious contender for the White House and would never cast a vote for the music mogul. But she is worried his candidacy could draw votes away from Democrat Joe Biden and help President Donald Trump on Nov. 3.
"Some may be swayed out of true belief that he’s serious or as a joke or out of spite," said Mangum, a Georgia Democrat.
West continues to draw media attention as a presidential hopeful running under the "Birthday Party" banner, despite not qualifying for the ballot in enough states to reach the minimum of 270 electoral votes.
He's on the ballot in Iowa, Arkansas, Colorado, Oklahoma, Utah and Vermont, and has sought to be a contender in important battlegrounds such as Wisconsin. But West has missed the deadline in significant states such as his home state of Illinois, Florida, Nevada, New Mexico, North Carolina and Texas.
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Republican operatives in several states have been involved in helping West get on the ballot. Lane Ruhland, a lawyer with ties to the Wisconsin Republican Party and the Trump campaign, was recorded on video dropping off signatures for West with the Wisconsin Elections Commission. The Associated Press and other media reported that GOP lawyers and activists have helped him get on the ballot in other states.
Mangum, who is Black, said she believes Republicans are encouraging West's bid in hopes his third-party candidacy could damage Biden.
"This is outrageous that in plain sight the Trump folks are OK with cheating to win," she said.
Some Democrats worry that West, 43, could have an impact on the race, in particular by cutting into Biden's support with younger Black voters. But critics say that thinking underscores an incorrect assumption that Black voters would flock to an African American celebrity. In fact, polling data shows very slim support for West and indicates that Black voters are no more likely to back him than white voters are.
Trump's reelection campaign has denied any coordination with West.
"We don’t know what Kanye West is doing or who is helping him do it," Trump campaign spokesman Tim Murtaugh told USA TODAY.
In an interview with Forbes, West acknowledged that the impact of his candidacy could be to draw votes from Biden. "I’m not denying it," West said. "I just told you."
Last week, West confirmed meeting with White House adviser Jared Kushner, saying the two have been friends for a decade and talk often.
"I'm willing to do a live interview with the New York Times about my meeting with Jared where we discussed Dr Claude Anderson’s book 'Powernomics'," West said in an Aug. 12 tweet.
Kushner said neither Trump nor his campaign have anything to do with West's presidential efforts, but acknowledged the meeting took place.
"(Kanye) has some great ideas for what he'd like to see happen in the country," Kushner told reporters at the White House. "And that's why he has the candidacy that he's been doing."
Democratic and Republican strategists said they are not taking West's presidential bid very seriously, at least not yet.
Polling shows slim support for West
A POLITICO/Morning Consult poll released last week showed just 2% of registered voters said they would vote for West, smaller than the 7% who said they had no opinion. Black voters were no more likely to support West, with only 2% saying they backed him. The poll also found that Biden's 9% lead nationally over Trump wasn't affected by whether the rapper was on the ballot.
Political consultant Jason Perkey, a former executive director for the South Carolina Democratic Party, said some of West's previous comments and his past praise for Trump put him out of step with many Black voters.
During an October 2018 visit to the White House, West, wearing a red "Make America Great Again" Trump campaign hat, hugged Trump and said wearing the hat made him "feel like Superman."
After West gave lengthy remarks during a session with reporters in the Oval Office, Trump said: "He can speak for me any time he wants. He’s a smart cookie. He gets it." Trump added that West "could very well be" a future presidential candidate.
"Only after 2024," the rapper clarified.
When he held his first political rally in South Carolina last month, West tearfully discussed his opposition to abortion.
"My dad wanted to abort me," he told the audience. "My mom saved my life. There would have been no Kanye West, because my dad was too busy."
At the same event, West criticized abolitionist Harriet Tubman, saying she "never actually freed the slaves. She just had the slaves go work for other white people."
Tubman is one of the most respected figures of 19th century America. An African American who escaped slavery, she helped enslaved Black men and women travel north to freedom and fought for the Union during the Civil War. She later became a supporter of women’s suffrage.
Perkey said it was unlikely West would attract votes in battleground states.
"However anyone wants to categorize what motivated Kanye to get into the race, who motivated him to do it or where his resources are coming from, the people in battleground states are smart enough to see through it," he said.
African American voters were a crucial base of support for Biden during the primaries. Support from Black voters in South Carolina in February rescued his campaign after his losses in Iowa, New Hampshire and Nevada. He eventually overtook Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., to clinch the votes needed for nomination.
Any Republican hopes that West could derail Biden's chances in November are unrealistic, Perkey said.
"It puts the term 'Hail Mary' to shame in terms of electoral politics," he said.
Comparison to Ralph Nader
But that doesn't mean some party professionals aren't keeping a wary eye on the music mogul's efforts, citing the damage a well-known third-party candidate can do.
"Everybody remembers what happened with Ralph Nader," said pollster Frank Luntz, referring to the battle for Florida in the disputed 2000 election in which President George W. Bush prevailed over Democrat Al Gore after a recount and the intervention of the Supreme Court.
Nader, a consumer advocate-turned-presidential candidate, carried only 1.6% of the vote in the Sunshine State, but that may have included thousands of left-leaning voters who might otherwise have backed Gore.
Bush had a lead of 537 votes over Gore in Florida. Nader got 97,488 votes.
"If Nader had not been on the ballot," Luntz said, "Al Gore would have won."
Pollsters questioned whether West could have that much of an impact on the 2020 race, especially since he missed deadlines in several big battleground states.
Republicans and Democrats also noted that West has not been campaigning, issuing only occasional and enigmatic tweets.
"People have to take him seriously," Luntz said.
A deeper dive into the POLITICO/Morning Consult survey showed West has a 21% approval rating among Black voters compared to a 62% unfavorable rating. He ranks highest at 34% among voters who have a very favorable view of Trump, according to the poll.
Biden holds a 78% favorable rating among African Americans versus a 17% unfavorable rating, the survey shows.
Republican pollster Ed Goeas said surveys show little or no enthusiasm among African American voters for West's candidacy, including among young people who might be more receptive to the candidacy of the musical artist.
On the other hand, he said, polls do show strong Black support for electing Biden and defeating Trump, making it hard to imagine that many committed people will simply switch their vote from Biden to West.
"I just don't see it," Goeas said. "They're not going to play that game and throw away their vote."
Even so, a small percentage of the vote can make a difference.
Many Democrats have argued that Trump benefited in 2016 from a pair of outsider candidates: Libertarian Party candidate Gary Johnson and Green Party candidate Jill Stein.
Trump won the Electoral College by carrying three states a Republican had not won since 1988: Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin. He won those states by a combined total of fewer than 80,000 votes.
In each of those states, Johnson and Stein drew more votes than the margins between Trump and Clinton. Democrats believe that Stein in particular took votes away from Clinton.
Keeping an eye on young voters
Democrats are keeping an eye on whether West will attract younger voters who aren't excited out Biden and have tuned out presidential race altogether.
Many took part of former first lady Michelle Obama's convention speech on Monday night as a warning to those young Americans about West, who is the most prominent third-party candidate thus far.
During a virtual address, she said that in the face of tactics to deter Biden's supporters, this year "is not the time to withhold our votes in protest or play games with candidates who have no chance of winning."
Young Black voters, especially those who supported Sen. Bernie Sanders in the primary election, have been more skeptical of Biden than Black voters in other age groups, according to an analysis from the Democracy Fund + UCLA Nationscape project.
Roughly 91% of Black voters age 65 and over, the study found, planned to vote for the former vice president. That dropped to 68% among the Black voters ages 18 to 29. It was also lower than the 85% of young Black voters who supported Hillary Clinton in during the 2016 election, according to the study.
West is drawing his strongest support from Gen Z voters, those born after 1996. About 6% of those voters said they would support West for president, according to the POLITICO/Morning Consult poll. But that group is a tiny slice of the electorate.
Younger Black voters have been more critical of Biden's record in the Senate, citing his role in crafting the 1994 crime bill as an example.
The legislation established stricter sentencing guidelines, including a mandatory "three strikes" life sentence for repeat violent offenders. Advocates for criminal justice reform say mandatory sentencing has contributed to mass incarcerations and should be rolled back.
Biden, then a senator from Delaware and chairman of the Senate Judiciary Committee, was a main architect of the bill.
The former vice president was questioned about the bill during a virtual NAACP forum in June.
Biden said the questions are "legitimate" but asked voters to focus more on his present views than past votes.
“Watch what I do," he said. "Judge me based on what I do, what I say and to whom I say it."
Redfield & Wilton Strategies, a British-based polling firm, found Democrats are worried West could spoil the race by siphoning away younger votes, but its data showed the opposite might happen.
The July poll showed Biden leading Trump 48% to 40%. But when West's name was included as an option in the survey, Biden still garnered support from 48% of the respondents while Trump's support slipped to 39%.
Even if polls suggest West's candidacy is unlikely to impact the race between Trump and Biden, he has received at least two challenges regarding his candidate paperwork in Wisconsin.
The complaints, filed with the state election commission by local activists, alleged that West's filing was late and included invalid signatures – accusations that West's attorneys disputed.
"These complaints represent a well-organized effort funded by wealthy outside groups, including the Wisconsin Democratic Party and its allies, who fear the candidacy of Kanye West, and seek to silence him," attorney Michael Curran wrote in the response.
Contributing: Byran Alexander of USA TODAY and The Associated Press
Reporter Phillip M. Bailey can be reached at pbailey@USAToday.com. Follow him on Twitter at @phillipmbailey.
