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In the last year, deadly frigid winter temperatures in Texas gave way to excruciating summer heat in the Northwest. Wildfires raged across California. In late summer, Hurricane Ida devastated Louisiana and flooded the Northeast. In December, an outbreak of nearly 70 tornadoes caused unprecedented destruction.
If you've thought headlines about U.S. weather and climate disasters are becoming more common: You're right. In the 1980s, only three events per year on average caused more than $1 billion in damage (inflation adjusted). The 2010s averaged around 12 such disasters a year—and 2020 made history with 22. In 2021, as of October, 18 events set a record for the first nine months of any year since the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) began keeping track in 1980.
The “billion dollar” cost metric is an arbitrary milestone, but its rise reveals several troubling trends, says NOAA applied climatologist Adam Smith. Climate change is turbocharging many kinds of extreme weather, and the same places get hit repeatedly, like the hurricane-battered South. In addition, more development in vulnerable areas, such as coasts or wildfire-prone forests, means each disaster can cause more damage.
Smith has spent 12 years compiling data on these disasters. “Normally, after you work on something for a while—more than a decade—you should stop becoming surprised,” he says. “But every year surprises me.” For example in June 2021, the record-breaking heat in the Northwest, which reached 117 degrees in Salem, Oregon, “wasn't really supposed to happen for several more decades,” he says.
Freezes
Freezes carry a steep price tag when they damage crop yield. Though the 2017 freeze in the Southeast wasn’t unusual for that time of year, it caused extra damage to agriculture as crops had started blooming three or more weeks earlier than usual due to warmer than average temperatures.Winter Storms
In February 2021, cold weather across much of the country killed 172 people and left more than 10 million Texans without power, making it the costliest winter storm in U.S. history.Wildfires
Wildfires are burning more land, more frequently as days get drier and hotter with climate change. In 2020, California wildfires scorched over 4.2 million acres. That's more than twice the previous record of 1.95 million acres, which had been set just two years before. And wildfire seasons are getting longer, too. Compared to the 1970s, the wildfire season in the West now lasts 105 more days, according to a 2016 report from Climate Central.Droughts
Another marker of climate change, more frequent and severe droughts increase the potential for wildfire and the risks to birds. NOAA’s data shows a billion-dollar drought nearly every year, especially in recent decades. “Since the year 2000, the West has been in a semi-permanent state of drought,” Smith says.Floods
Disastrous flooding is becoming more frequent, but the water that inundated the Midwest in the summer of 1993 remains an exceptional case. Heavy rains that year flooded both the Mississippi and Missouri River valleys, destroying crops and killing 48 people.Hurricanes
Hurricanes have historically been the most expensive and deadliest disasters: Katrina in 2005 is the costliest event on record ($179 billion), followed by 2017’s Harvey ($139 billion) and Maria ($100 billion). And warming is likely to cause more intense hurricanes in the future.Severe Storms
Costly severe storms including tornadoes, hail, high winds, thunderstorms, and derechos have become markedly more common since 1980. These events caused extensive damage to homes, vehicles, and businesses.Freezes
Freezes carry a steep price tag when they damage crop yield. Though the 2017 freeze in the Southeast wasn’t unusual for that time of year, it caused extra damage to agriculture as crops had started blooming three or more weeks earlier than usual due to warmer than average temperatures.Winter Storms
In February 2021, cold weather across much of the country killed 172 people and left more than 10 million Texans without power, making it the costliest winter storm in U.S. history.Wildfires
Wildfires are burning more land, more frequently as days get drier and hotter with climate change. In 2020, California wildfires scorched over 4.2 million acres. That's more than twice the previous record of 1.95 million acres, which had been set just two years before. And wildfire seasons are getting longer, too. Compared to the 1970s, the wildfire season in the West now lasts 105 more days, according to a 2016 report from Climate Central.Droughts
Another marker of climate change, more frequent and severe droughts increase the potential for wildfire and the risks to birds. NOAA’s data shows a billion-dollar drought nearly every year, especially in recent decades. “Since the year 2000, the West has been in a semi-permanent state of drought,” Smith says.Floods
Disastrous flooding is becoming more frequent, but the water that inundated the Midwest in the summer of 1993 remains an exceptional case. Heavy rains that year flooded both the Mississippi and Missouri River valleys, destroying crops and killing 48 people.Hurricanes
Hurricanes have historically been the most expensive and deadliest disasters: Katrina in 2005 is the costliest event on record ($179 billion), followed by 2017’s Harvey ($139 billion) and Maria ($100 billion). And warming is likely to cause more intense hurricanes in the future.Severe Storms
Costly severe storms including tornadoes, hail, high winds, thunderstorms, and derechos have become markedly more common since 1980. These events caused extensive damage to homes, vehicles, and businesses.These steep price tags are still only conservative estimates. “There are a lot of indirect losses to people and to ecosystems and to other parts of society that we just cannot fully account for,” Smith says. For example, poor air quality from wildfire smoke might drive away tourists or contribute to health struggles like asthma, heart attacks, and mental health issues.
Birds, too, pay an incalculable price from extreme disasters. Two thirds of North American birds are at risk of extinction from rising temperatures and will have to shift their range, according to Audubon’s Survival by Degrees report. “No species is going to escape climate change,” says Brooke Bateman, director of climate science at Audubon. “Even if they don't have to shift their range dramatically, they're going to have these extreme events to deal with.” Hurricanes and heavy rainfall inundate nesting sites, wiping out broods of chicks. Wildfires and tropical storms destroy habitat. And droughts and cold snaps can limit food sources or kill birds outright.
Despite working with dreary data, Smith sees a silver lining: These stats are a wake-up call. We're reaching a turning point, he says, as more people understand the magnitude of what's taking place and pursue technological, infrastructure, and policy solutions for a better future."