The 2022 Atlantic hurricane season is far from over.
Ian’s destructive landfalls in Cuba, southwest Florida and South Carolina, along with Hurricane Fiona’s rampage before that, helped bring a relatively quiet hurricane season closer to an average one.
The shift into overdrive is expected to continue. Researchers at Colorado State University warn that “well above-median October-November” activity is expected in the Caribbean — a sign that North America should closely monitor the next several weeks for tropical threats.
Atlantic hurricane season doesn’t officially conclude until Nov. 30, and fierce storms have occurred in recent years in the season’s final eight weeks, including Hurricane Zeta, which struck Louisiana in 2020, and Sandy in 2012 over the Northeast.
Systems to watch
There are two systems to watch in the Atlantic — one that bears close watching for interests in the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico, and another off the coast of Africa.
Caribbean system
On Monday morning, an area of showers and thunderstorms was about 1,000 miles east of the Windward Islands. It’s set to cross the Lesser Antilles on Thursday and may gradually develop. The National Hurricane Center estimates a 40 percent chance of eventual organization into at least a tropical depression or storm.
High pressure over the southern United States and Gulf of Mexico would probably prolong its westward journey, keeping it in the Caribbean for at least the next seven to nine days. Given that the system has yet to develop, more detailed forecasts aren’t possible.
Africa system
A second tropical wave is due south of the Cabo Verde islands. It will probably consolidate in the next 48 to 72 hours and become a named storm as it curves northward. It could be shunted west by the Azores High and sneak into the central Atlantic. If this occurs, it will receive the name Julia but should remain away from land.
Looking ahead
CSU has issued 2-week Atlantic #hurricane forecast (Sep. 29-Oct. 12) and gives highest odds for above-normal activity (55%) with lower odds for normal (35%) & below-normal (5%). #Ian should generate enough ACE by itself to approach near-normal level.https://t.co/hFO7AJxkuz pic.twitter.com/UNqhyLVRsH
— Philip Klotzbach (@philklotzbach) September 29, 2022
On Friday, Philip Klotzbach, a hurricane researcher at Colorado State University, released his team’s two-week sub-seasonal hurricane outlook. He called for a 55 percent chance of above-average activity through Oct. 12, and only a 5 percent chance of activity coming in below average.
He attributes the prediction for above-average activity to Ian having been a factor early in the forecast period, but notes that two other systems bear watching.
“[Weather models] have much more vigorous support than yesterday for development of a tropical wave that has recently exited the coast of West Africa,” he wrote. “Both model ensembles indicate potential development in the Caribbean in about ~10 days as well.”
Where Atlantic hurricane season stands
In taking stock of how active a hurricane season is, atmospheric scientists refer to ACE — or Accumulated Cyclone Energy. That’s a metric based on a storm’s intensity and duration. It attempts to quantify, albeit loosely, how much energy storms extract from warm sea waters and expend on their winds.
In late August, the Atlantic Basin stood at barely 10 percent of average ACE. Then Fiona, which left behind serious wind and flood damage in Puerto Rico, sideswiped Bermuda and slammed into the Canadian Maritimes, spinning up 26.3 ACE units ― about as much as had been tallied to date in the season by the preceding five storms.
Ian wrangled up 17.4 units, bringing the seasonal ACE total to 79.1. The average for early October is 95.5, so this year is at about 83 percent of average. But the second half of September produced more ACE than all but five other seasons since 1950, according to Klotzbach. September, as a whole, generated more ACE than 2020 and 2021, both very busy years, Klotzbach tweeted.
Jason Samenow contributed to this report.
